Cotton production in Gujarat is in the upswing - estimated production for this year is 100 lakh bales as against 85 lakh bales last year. This rise comes in the backdrop of total national production this year at 250 lakh bales.

Ironically, this gain in cotton comes at the expense of groundnut. According to Saurashtra Oil Millers' Association (SOMA), production of groundnut is likely to plunge from 28 lakh tonnes last year to 16 lakh tonnes this year, a fall of whooping 43 per cent.

SOMA is the apex body of groundnut producers who control nearly 95 per cent of groundnut production and trade in India. Gujarat accounts for 40 per cent of the country's cotton production and 35 per cent groundnut output. Cotton yield in the State is 725 kg a hectare, next only to Punjab's 887 kg a hectare.

According to SOMA sources, the area under groundnut cultivation in the Saurashtra region has come down from 18 lakh hectares last year to 16.5 lakh hectares this year. On the other hand, the area under cotton cultivation has increased from 19 lakh hectares to 24 lakh hectares during the same period and in the same regions - Saurashtra and North Gujarat.

As per official sources, the reason behind this shift in cropping patterns, in these regions having black cotton soil suitable for Bt cotton growth, is that cotton gives better returns compared to the traditional groundnut.

As against the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 1,985 per quintal for cotton, prices in the market were in the range of Rs 2,100 - Rs 2,500 per quintal last year. This year, MSP has been increased to Rs 1,990, and the current prices for cotton are already around Rs 2,200 per quintal. With the cotton crop facing rough weather in China and other countries, prospects for export are also bright, and, therefore, prices may go up further.

On the other hand, the prices of groundnut had increased from Rs 2,700 per quintal to Rs 3,100 during the last six weeks, and are likely to go up to Rs 4,500 this year. Similarly, the prices of groundnut kernel rose from Rs 3,500 per quintal to about Rs 4,100 during the period. Reduced production of groundnut is likely to push up prices in the domestic edible oil sector.

With a record 100 lakh bales of projected cotton production this year in Gujarat and a possible fall in groundnut yield by 43 per cent, the contours of the State's economy and politics may undergo a sea change for the first time in the last 75 years.