| Significant
increase in crop area may result in substantial
increase in wheat crop this year. As per Agriculture
Ministry, the area under wheat has increased
to 142.05 lakh hectares (lh) against 119.5
lh during the corresponding period a year
ago. Driven by good prices in open market,
farmers in North India have gone for wheat
in large scale. During
the weekend, wheat (dara) ruled at Rs 880-882
a quintal. During the same time last year,
the prices were around Rs 762 and the year
before, it was at Rs 742. It should be noted
that open market prices are well above the
minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 650 a
quintal fixed by the Centre for the current
rabi season. Futures price is also above
the MSP with wheat quoting at Rs 776 a quintal
on National Commodities and Derivatives
Exchange for delivery in March.
Another factor that may lead
to higher market price is low stock of wheat
in the country - which is lower than critical
level of 10 million tonnes. Besides, by
April it could be down to around one million
tonnes.
Weather may still play spoilsport
in this optimistic scenario. Though wheat
crop looked promising during last two seasons
but early end to winter in 2003 and late
start to winter last season has hurt production
significantly. Last year, wheat production
was 72 million tonnes, lower by 0.11 million
tonnes compared with the previous year.
Weather conditions are excellent this year
so far as germination of wheat is concerned.
The water level in the reservoirs
is also an encouraging trend for an overall
improvement in rabi sowing, barring coarse
cereals. The storage level in the 76 major
reservoirs is higher by 36 per cent compared
with the same period a year ago and 21 per
cent compared with the average level in
the last 10 years. The water level in these
reservoirs is 100.26 billion cubic metres
(bcm) against the full level of 133.02 bcm.
Rice sowing is up marginally
but a clear picture is awaited in view of
the havoc wreaked by rains in Tamil Nadu
and Andhra Pradesh. The latest figures,
however, show the area up by 70,000 hectares
in Tamil Nadu. Among coarse cereals, the
area under jowar is down to 46.84 lh (50.13
lh) but sowing of maize and barley is up
marginally.
Oilseeds crop is another that
is promising during the current rabi season.
The area under rapeseed/mustard is up 4.87
lh to 67.28 lh with sowing mainly rising
in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The area
under groundnut and safflower is down marginally
but is up in the case of sesame, linseed
and sunflower. Acreage under pulses is up
at 94 lh against 92.68 lh during the year-ago
period. |
